By CHUCK RAASCH, Gannett National Writer
November 04. 2009 12:33PM
WASHINGTON — Harry Reid has literally read the book on the 2004 election defeat of the last Senate Democratic leader, Tom Daschle.
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Jon Lauck, a senior adviser to Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., who beat Daschle in 2004, wrote a book about the race, "Daschle vs. Thune: Anatomy of a High-Plains Senate Race." Not long after its 2007 release, Lauck got a hand-written note from Nevada's senior senator, who wrote that the book "brought back many memories."
What Reid learned from those memories could determine whether he survives in Nevada in 2010.
Democrats reject any comparisons between Daschle's electoral demise and Reid's tough re-election challenge. But pollsters and political experts say Reid is in a tough fight to avoid being the second Democratic Senate leader in six years to be defeated.
In some ways, Reid faces a more formidable re-election challenge than Daschle did. Nevada's economy has been hit harder than most, with a 13.3 percent unemployment rate second only to Michigan.
Reid trailed two possible Republican challengers in polls taken earlier this fall. His favorability rating of 38 percent in one poll, a fatal political level in many circumstances, was more than 20 points below Daschle's in 2003.
Republicans are pulling out the argument they used to oust Daschle and applying it to Reid: that the demands of leading Senate Democrats have pulled the senator leftward and away from his state's interests.
Reid has responded with new ads highlighting the jobs, money and clout he says he has brought to Nevada.
Reid is the third Senate leader in four elections to face a serious re-election challenge. Besides Daschle's loss in 2004, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell survived a tough 2008 race.
Although similarities exist between Daschle's experience then and Reid's position now, key differences argue that while Reid may be down, don't yet count him out:
1. Different place.
Politically, culturally and demographically, South Dakota and Nevada may as well be on different planets.
While South Dakota has had a propensity to elect Democrats to the Senate since George McGovern in 1962, it remains core Republican. There were 235,206 registered Republicans and 198,775 registered Democrats in the state as of Oct. 1.
However, in Nevada, Democrats have surged to a more than 100,000-voter margin after being roughly on par with Republicans in registration just two years ago.
Close to 7 of 10 South Dakotans were born in the state. Its people tend to know their politicians over generations.
About 1 in 5 Nevadans was born there, and it has grown so fast that even nationally known politicians like Reid need to keep re-introducing themselves.
"Nevada is a dynamic state," said Dick Wadhams, who managed Thune's 2004 campaign and who is now backing former Nevada Republican Chairwoman Sue Lowden's challenge to Reid. "South Dakota is a static state. Its population doesn't change."
2. Different time.
The political atmosphere has changed. Thune ran in 2004 with a relatively popular George Bush at the top of the ticket. The economy was not much of an issue.
Reid won't share next year's ballot with President Barack Obama, who beat John McCain by 12 percentage points in Nevada. If unemployment remains high and the public's apprehension about the country's direction persists, long-term incumbents like Reid could be in trouble. Some Republicans see Reid's troubles as an indicator of big Democratic Senate and House losses next year.
"It is a good sign for Republicans when the Democratic majority leader is unexpectedly in trouble in a swing state," Republican pollster Bill McInturff said.
3. Nontransferable tactics.
Tactics that work in one state may not in another.
After the 2004 campaign, Daschle adviser Anita Dunn — now Obama's communications director — said she believed many South Dakotans grew tired of seeing Daschle ads on TV for 18 months. Thune didn't start running ads until four months before Election Day.
Like Daschle, Reid went on the air long before the election, running ads this fall touting his clout and biography.
Could this, too, backfire?
Wadhams thinks "the public will start tuning ads out if they see them too much."
Reid pollster Mark Mellman thinks it will take time to introduce Reid to voters.
"There are a lot of people who came to Nevada over the last 12 years who don't know very much about Harry Reid," Mellman said.
Also, Daschle made costly mistakes that Reid has so far avoided. Daschle fed criticism he had forgotten his roots by registering for a homestead exemption in the nation's capital. After years of trying to finesse his stand on abortion in a staunchly anti-abortion state, Daschle signed a 2002 fundraising letter for the National Abortion Rights Action League.
4. Different candidates.
Daschle faced a more polished opponent. Thune was a former congressman who had lost by 524 votes to Democrat Tim Johnson in the 2002 Senate campaign.
In Nevada, Republicans will choose from a less-experienced field that includes Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, the son of a former popular basketball coach at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Reid and Daschle both have mild-mannered exteriors, but some Democrats think Reid is a tougher campaigner. A Reid aide was recently quoted boasting that the senator would "vaporize" his opponents with attack ads.
Reid, Wadhams said, "is a much more ruthless politician than Tom Daschle."
Contact Chuck Raasch at craasch@gannett.com, follow him on Twitter or join in the Facebook conversation.
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About RaaschChuck Raasch is national political writer for Gannett. His column, New Politics, appears here and on USA TODAY.com. A native of South Dakota and a graduate of South Dakota State University, Raasch has covered political campaigns since 1978, including Tom Daschle's first race for Congress and George McGovern's last race for the Senate. He has covered presidential campaigns since 1988.
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